Crypto

This is a follow-up post on a previous one in which we speculated about the amount we are owed. Below, in consideration of recent financial developments, we take up the topic of bitcoin.

Let's imagine a world in which Tim invested our money in bitcoin. Is this so hard? After all, everyone and their brother is getting into crypto now. Maybe Tim got caught up in the great bitcoin boom of 2017 (which would mean our money is now worth about half of what it was). But that sounds unrealistic. Why would Tim, all of a sudden after 14 years of having our money, decide to throw it into bitcoin?

Here is a more likely scenario, it's the fall of 2013. Tim is married now, out of pharmacy school and taking stock of the last phase of his life as he prepares to mount a new adventure. In his reflections, Tim remembers the visit to Japan he made a few years ago when he met up with us in Tokyo. Cold shame twisting his bowels for a fleeting moment, he remembers that he had promised to send us our deposit money, a promise that remains unfulfilled. He remembers that moment in the dressing room of the public bath, our sweaty hands scribbling addresses on a scrap of notecard, and knows instantly -- he has no idea where that scrap of paper is.

Meanwhile on another trajectory of reality that is about to converge with the above, bitcoin is reeling from its first major boom-bust cycle. For a fleeting moment in April 2013, a single bitcoin was worth $230, more than ten times its value a few months before that. The plunge came fast and harsh, dropping to less than $70 in less than a week before stabilizing around $90 after a couple of weeks. Dollar-wise, these fluctuations are laughable today. Bitcoin falls and rises by such amounts in the space of hours on a typical day now, but in percentage terms, the drama will be familiar to anyone who lived through the heady days of 2017, and the more sober reality that has since been imposed.

Nevertheless, this little bubble captured the attention of the media and the world was in the throes of what would not be the first spate of "What is Bitcoin?" articles. Tim, always on the cutting edge (Remember his liking of Eminem and disliking of George W. Bush well ahead of the crowd?), is thoughtfully consuming these, not stopping at the Washington Post primer but seeking out the authentic sauce from Wired and Gizmodo. As we know, Tim is always "down for whatever" and while that usually means road trips, swimming in any available body of water, and enjoying the natural beauty of Oregon, this sometimes extends to quirky, edgy, out-of-the-box investments. Bitcoin is on the rise again, and he decides to convert a chunk of his own cash into the cryptocurrency, and decides to throw our share of the deposit ($2172) in as well, buying bitcoin on October 20, 2013, when it was worth $163.06.

In this very plausible scenario, our share would as of today be worth roughly $112000, or $37,333 per person.